Elk River, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

927
FXUS63 KMPX 072111
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
411 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Air Quality Alert for much of Minnesota until this evening.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms this evening into
Monday.

- Tropical-like airmass settles in Monday. This will lead to the
potential for several rounds of thunderstorms through mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Current water vapor imagery showing the core of an upper-level low
centered across E`rn Nebraska this afternoon. Ahead of this feature,
a surface warm front that extends from Madison over to Rochester has
produced dew points near 70 degrees with air temperatures upper 80s.
Warm-advective showers and thunderstorms have developed along this
boundary in southern MN and are expected to continue north-
northwestward through this evening. Today`s environment continues to
advertise for sub-severe weather however, latest SPC
mesoanalysis does feature a MUCAPE gradient over 2500 J/kg
where the line of storms resides. So there is enough instability
to get storms going along this front but luckily wind-shear
lacks to maintain any rotating updrafts for producing large
hail. Additionally, storms will be pulse-like and have frequent
periods of intensification and weakening. The main hazard with
these storms will be heavy rainfall. Southerly flow continues to
pump in ample moisture to the northern plains. PWAT values
exceeding 1.75" will support periods of torrential rainfall that
could lead to localized areas seeing minor nuisance flooding,
especially in low lying areas. This period of rainfall is expect
to linger overnight into Monday with western MN clearing out by
early morning, eastern MN by mid-morning, and then western WI
by late afternoon. Storm total rainfall continues to range
mainly between 0.25 to 0.75" although localized higher amounts
are likely for those who see training heavy rain.

Tuesday, high pressure briefly returns with southerly flow continues
to support a warm moist airmass in to the northern plains. Forecast
high temperatures will range in the upper 80s to lower 90s with
dew points in the upper 60s. This will result in heat indices
to reach the mid to upper 90s which borderlines advisory
criteria. One thing to note is that the NBM has been
aggressively warm for the past few days. Therefore have blended
in HiRes guidance to trend back heat indices that were
previously exceeding 100 degrees. By Tuesday night, another
chance of round of showers and thunderstorms proceeds an upper-
trough that will move through the northern plains on Wednesday.
Forecast QPF shifts its maxima this time mainly for northwestern
MN into North Dakota however portions of central and southern
MN could see another couple tenths of an inch of rainfall.

Now for Wednesday, there has been plenty of chatter about the
increasing risk of severe thunderstorms late Wednesday into
Thursday. Warm and humid conditions are expected once again with
temperatures in the lower 90s and dew points in the mid 60s to mid
70s. The aforementioned upper-level trough continues eastward and
does take a broad negatively-tilted shape. The Storm Prediction
Center has issued an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms across with higher confidence of supercells and
bowing segments to occur across western MN and the Dakotas.
However, there are a couple of things we do have to keep an eye
on. One, is if the atmosphere recover from Tuesday night
convection, and confidence in the forecast guidance. Two, is
noting that the GFS, ECMWF, and CAN have all shifted the triple
point farther east thus producing the strongest convection
mainly in Wisconsin. Given that, still something worth
monitoring early this week.


The rest of the forecast period features minor chances for rain and
thunderstorms. Temperatures return to near-normal values with
highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 50s. Humidity will
also retreat as dew points decrease back into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A few thunderstorms have developed across southern Minnesota
early this afternoon. This activity is expected to remain widely
scattered to isolated in nature, so have opted to go with the
PROB30 mention. Overnight, showers will become more widespread
with MVFR cigs/vis early Monday morning. Some IFR cigs are
expected as well as additional thunder chances through tomorrow
morning. Most sites should return to at least MVFR by the end of
the period. Winds remain out of the southeast around 10kts.

KMSP...Given the early development of the storms to the south,
have adjusted the PROB30 window to start a little earlier. Also
felt that VCTS was justified due to the very scattered/isolated
nature of these cells. Will continue to monitor trends and make
adjustments to the TAF as needed. Overnight, another round of
showers arrives with MVFR/IFR conditions. Kept the Monday
morning PROB30 for thunder going from the previous forecast.
Conditions improve by tomorrow afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR, bcmg MVFR w/TSRA. Wind S 15-20G30 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind W 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Dye